Saturday, November 7, 2026·Independent Market Research·The arithmetic behind the moves

The Lead — Research Note No. 032

Tesla fell 10.8%. It broke both levels our last note flagged.

Tesla fell 10.8% Thursday to $343.69 on 2.1 times normal volume, in a market-wide selloff tied to new worry about AI regulation after Tuesday's midterm election results. We found no Tesla-specific news. The drop broke both the $386–$389 and $346–$354 support levels our late-October note named, and the intraday low of $338.15 came within 91 cents of the next level down, the April 7 low. Below that, Tesla has little support until its 52-week low near $297. In 29 similar single-day drops since 2012, the stock traded higher a month later 59% of the time, versus 55% on an average day. The note lays out the indicators, the analog study, and the levels and options positioning that matter now.

Read Note No. 032 — The Last Floor Ledger →

Research notes

Research Note No. 031 · PLTR

The Bookings Deceleration Ledger

Palantir fell 9.2% over two sessions to $178.34, then beat its own revenue guidance by 6.9%, but total contract value growth slowed to 6% from 49% the prior quarter. In 13 similar past drops, the stock traded higher a month later 62% of the time.

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Research Note No. 030 · SPCX

The Next Floor Ledger

SpaceX fell 6.4% Friday to $134.72, closing below the $140–$145 floor an earlier note named as the next level down, and landing in the $130–$134 zone of its August 20 low.

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Research Note No. 029 · BTC / ETH / SOL

The Custody Freeze Ledger

Binance disclosed a $6.3 billion security breach, the largest crypto exchange theft on record, and suspended withdrawals. Bitcoin fell 3.4%, Ether fell 4.5%, and Solana fell 4.1%, each on more than double normal volume.

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Research Note No. 028 · TSLA

The Average Reclaim Ledger

Tesla closed below its 200-day average for 78 straight sessions, then reclaimed it, up 5.21% on 1.46 times normal volume after a Barclays upgrade. In 27 similar reclaims since 2022, it traded higher a month later 63% of the time.

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Research Note No. 027 · SPCX

The Release Reversal Ledger

Up to 1.3 billion more SpaceX shares became eligible to trade, far larger than any release before it. The stock fell 9.1% that session to $144.75 on 2.0 times normal volume, its worst reaction to any of its six releases so far.

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Trader's Primers

Read the Tape, Plainly

Candlesticks, support & resistance, and the Algorithmic Confluence — classic chart-reading framed as mechanical flow, on real dated examples, with none of the fortune-telling.

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The house method

How we read the tape

We don't predict prices. We follow the money that moves for mechanical reasons — index rebalances, rule-driven flows, algorithmic execution levels — and mark what the market has already priced in. Every figure is checkable, from public filings and index methodology.

The Archive — Research notes

Trader's Primers